Google’s AI Transforms Weather Forecasts with GenCast

2 min read


The capability of weather prediction has to be an indispensable component in a world moving very fast, with increasing events of extreme weather due to changing weather conditions. In this regard, DeepMind, an AI branch of Google, introduces an innovation that promises to revolutionize the field of weather forecasts completely: GenCast.

What is GenCast?

GenCast is an advanced AI model for weather forecasting, based on the difficult task of diffusion technology, so far impressive in generating images, videos, and even music. Trained on a 40-year historical weather data base from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this model provides high-resolution probabilistic forecasts at 0.25° resolution, outperforming the currently most advanced physics-based systems.

How Does it Work?

Unlike traditional deterministic models, which spit out a single estimate of future weather, GenCast cranks out an ensemble of 50 or more forecasts, each representing a possible weather scenario. This yields more detailed and valuable forecasts that give decision-makers a broad sense of the possibilities and their likelihoods for weather conditions days and weeks ahead.

The coolest thing about GenCast, however, is just how efficient it is: whereas supercomputers with tens of thousands of processors and hours are required by the current systems to give a detailed forecast, GenCast can do a 15-day forecast in eight minutes using one TPU v5 (tensor processing unit). It saves not only time but resources, too, and probably opens up a way to expand access to precise forecasts around the globe.

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Performance and Precision

Tests have demonstrated that the performance of GenCast outperforms the ENS system at ECMWF in 97.2% of the cases, and even better for longer-term forecasts, with accuracy over 99.8% for forecasts beyond 36 hours. This represents a marked improvement over current models and brings into much sharper focus a detailed picture of what the future weather will be like.

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Global Impact

The release of the GenCast model, along with its code, weights, and forecasts to the greater weather forecasting community, is a great step toward democratizing access to advanced forecasting tools. This will change how nations, communities, and individuals prepare for extreme weather events, in an effort to reduce risks and save lives.

GenCast is but one technological leap forward, showing how artificial intelligence can completely change the most important aspects of our lives. And with all the uncertainties and risks brought about by climate change, such innovations become ever so valuable in providing us with the tools necessary to navigate an increasingly unpredictable world.

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